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Sudtirol cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Juve Stabia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sudtirol beat Juve Stabia 2-0 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.33 xG and Juve Stabia 1.15 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Juve Stabia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.97 / defence 1.14 against Juve Stabia attack 0.84 / defence 1.05, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 39% | Draw 30% | Juve Stabia 31%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 58%, Juve Stabia 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sudtirol's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Juve Stabia's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Juve Stabia arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Sudtirol winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sudtirol (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights