Sudtirol 1-1 Cesena – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Cesena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Cesena travel to Stadio Druso to take on Sudtirol. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sudtirol — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sudtirol have posted 2W 6D 2L at Stadio Druso — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cesena stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cesena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cesena have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sudtirol at 1.40 PPG versus Cesena's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Sudtirol have won 0, Cesena 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Sudtirol in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Cesena in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 49% versus Cesena 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 34% | Cesena 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.26 xG and Cesena 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.832 / defence 0.713 | Cesena attack 0.730 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.319. Sudtirol's defence rating of 0.713 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Sudtirol games / 47 Cesena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 49% | Draw 31% | Cesena 19%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.04 | Draw 3.23 | Cesena 5.26. Sudtirol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sudtirol are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 50% | Cesena 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Cesena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 49% | Draw 31% | Cesena 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 36% | xG Sudtirol 1.26 / Cesena 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.832 / def 0.713 | Cesena attack 0.730 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Cesena xG
36%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Cesena kick off?
Sudtirol vs Cesena kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Stadio Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Cesena?
Sudtirol 1 - 1 Cesena.
Where is Sudtirol vs Cesena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Cesena part of?
Sudtirol vs Cesena is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Cesena?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 49% chance of winning, Cesena a 19% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Cesena?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Sudtirol and Cesena will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Cesena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Cesena?
Record (4 meetings): Sudtirol 0W | Draws 2 | Cesena 2W.
What form are Sudtirol and Cesena in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Cesena (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sudtirol's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Cesena's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Cesena's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
49%
2.03
31%
3.20
19%
5.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
1.95
0.69
Cesena xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
5.16
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.74
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
25%
4.03
5%
18.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 9.8 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.0 | 12.3 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 7.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Cesena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Cesena expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Sudtirol and 0.69 for Cesena, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Cesena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 10W 22D 15L from 47 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cesena, meanwhile, have gone 14W 15D 18L across 47 games — 1.21 PPG, with D-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Cesena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sudtirol on 1.11 PPG, Cesena on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sudtirol have managed 6W 11D 6L from 23 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cesena's away record stands at 7W 5D 11L across 23 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Sudtirol are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Cesena are on 1.17 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cesena in 64%.
Last 47 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Cesena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Cesena in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 10W 22D 15L in their last 47 games (1.11 PPG), while Cesena have gone 14W 15D 18L in their last 47 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Cesena away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.26 PPG; Cesena away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Sudtirol's record when hosting Cesena specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Sudtirol
3
Draws
2
Cesena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Cesena?
From 5 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 0, Cesena have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Cesena last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Sudtirol 1-1 Cesena.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Cesena?
Cesena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sudtirol see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 48%, Cesena 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Sudtirol) and 48% (Cesena).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Sudtirol have failed to score in 39% of games; Cesena in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Cesena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Cesena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 52% of Cesena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Cesena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Sudtirol's recent games and 48% of Cesena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Cesena tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Cesena in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sudtirol and Cesena share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Druso, Regular Season - 10, as Sudtirol and Cesena drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.26 xG and Cesena 0.69 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.83 / defence 0.71 against Cesena attack 0.73 / defence 1.20, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 49% | Draw 31% | Cesena 19%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 34%, Cesena 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Cesena's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.11 PPG, Cesena 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.