Sudtirol vs Cesena – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Cesena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Cesena travel to Stadio Marco Druso to take on Sudtirol. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sudtirol — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sudtirol have posted 2W 5D 3L at Stadio Marco Druso — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cesena stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cesena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cesena have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sudtirol at 1.10 PPG versus Cesena's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Sudtirol have won 0, Cesena 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Sudtirol in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Cesena in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 49% versus Cesena 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 34% | Cesena 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.24 xG and Cesena 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.925 / defence 0.781 | Cesena attack 0.978 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Sudtirol's defence rating of 0.781 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Sudtirol games / 41 Cesena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 45% | Draw 29% | Cesena 26%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Cesena 3.85. Sudtirol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sudtirol are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 40% | Cesena 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Cesena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 45% | Draw 29% | Cesena 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Sudtirol 1.24 / Cesena 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.925 / def 0.781 | Cesena attack 0.978 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Cesena xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Cesena kick off?
Sudtirol vs Cesena is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Stadio Marco Druso.
Where is Sudtirol vs Cesena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Cesena part of?
Sudtirol vs Cesena is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Cesena?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 45% chance of winning, Cesena a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Cesena?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Sudtirol and Cesena will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Cesena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Cesena?
Record (4 meetings): Sudtirol 0W | Draws 2 | Cesena 2W.
What form are Sudtirol and Cesena in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Cesena (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sudtirol's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Cesena's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Cesena's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
45%
2.24
29%
3.44
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.13
0.88
Cesena xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
8%
13.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 10.5 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.1 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Cesena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Cesena expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Sudtirol and 0.88 for Cesena, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Cesena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 9W 19D 13L from 41 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cesena, meanwhile, have gone 13W 12D 16L across 41 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-L-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cesena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sudtirol on 1.12 PPG, Cesena on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sudtirol have managed 6W 8D 6L from 20 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cesena's away record stands at 7W 4D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Sudtirol are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Cesena are on 1.20 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cesena in 63%.
Last 41 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Early Season
Cesena
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Cesena in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 9W 19D 13L in their last 41 games (1.12 PPG), while Cesena have gone 13W 12D 16L in their last 41 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Cesena away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.30 PPG; Cesena away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sudtirol's record when hosting Cesena specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sudtirol
2
Draws
2
Cesena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Cesena?
From 4 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 0, Cesena have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Cesena last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Cesena 1-1 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Cesena?
Cesena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sudtirol see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 45%, Cesena 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Sudtirol) and 50% (Cesena).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Sudtirol have failed to score in 40% of games; Cesena in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Cesena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Cesena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 55% of Cesena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Cesena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Sudtirol's recent games and 50% of Cesena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Cesena tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Cesena in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.