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Prediction vindicated as Cesena edge out Sudtirol 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cesena beat Sudtirol 0-1 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.42 xG and Cesena 1.56 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sudtirol fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 1.05 / defence 1.14 against Cesena attack 1.25 / defence 1.01, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 31% | Draw 31% | Cesena 38%, with Cesena to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 56%, Cesena 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sudtirol's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Cesena's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.22 PPG, Cesena 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cesena win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Cesena (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights