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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Sudtirol edge out Catanzaro 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sudtirol beat Catanzaro 2-1 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.38 xG and Catanzaro 1.00 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 1.01 / defence 0.95 against Catanzaro attack 1.02 / defence 1.07, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 45% | Draw 28% | Catanzaro 27%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 49%, Catanzaro 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sudtirol's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Catanzaro's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.20 PPG, Catanzaro 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights