🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Sudtirol and Catanzaro share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 21, as Sudtirol and Catanzaro drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.10 xG and Catanzaro 1.73 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.88 / defence 1.50 against Catanzaro attack 1.11 / defence 1.02, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 22% | Draw 27% | Catanzaro 50%, with Catanzaro to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 52%, Catanzaro 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sudtirol's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Catanzaro's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.12 PPG, Catanzaro 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights