🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Sudtirol and Carrarese share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sudtirol and Carrarese finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.38 xG and Carrarese 1.31 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.92 / defence 1.10 against Carrarese attack 1.09 / defence 1.10, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 35% | Draw 33% | Carrarese 32%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 55%, Carrarese 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sudtirol's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Carrarese's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.16 PPG, Carrarese 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights