Sudtirol vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Benevento make the trip to Stadio Marco Druso to face Sudtirol in Serie B, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 January 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Sudtirol (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol at Stadio Marco Druso this season: 2W 7D 1L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Benevento's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benevento's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 2L across 4 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sudtirol lead 1W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sudtirol goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Benevento goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 50% versus Benevento 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sudtirol 20% | Benevento 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.06 xG and Benevento 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.809 / defence 0.780 | Benevento attack 0.845 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.233. Sudtirol's defence rating of 0.780 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Sudtirol games / 10 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 39% | Draw 36% | Benevento 26%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.56 | Draw 2.78 | Benevento 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.87 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 50% | Benevento 0% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 39% | Draw 36% | Benevento 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 38% | xG Sudtirol 1.06 / Benevento 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.809 / def 0.780 | Benevento attack 0.845 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Benevento xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Benevento kick off?
Sudtirol vs Benevento is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 January 2027 at Stadio Marco Druso.
Where is Sudtirol vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Benevento part of?
Sudtirol vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 39% chance of winning, Benevento a 26% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Sudtirol and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Benevento?
Record (3 meetings): Sudtirol 1W | Draws 2 | Benevento 0W.
What form are Sudtirol and Benevento in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Benevento (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sudtirol's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Benevento's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. Flip it around — Benevento's attack (0.84x) against Sudtirol's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
39%
2.58
36%
2.80
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
1.87
0.81
Benevento xG
2.58
39%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
9%
11.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 12.5 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Sudtirol and 0.81 for Benevento, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 10 outings, Sudtirol have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 3W 5D 2L record — D-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benevento's form line: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-L. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Sudtirol against 1.50 for Benevento. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sudtirol have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (0W 4D 0L).
On the road, Benevento have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benevento come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sudtirol are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Benevento
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Benevento in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 games (1.40 PPG), while Benevento have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Benevento away?
Benevento's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.00 PPG; Benevento away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Benevento in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Sudtirol
2
Draws
0
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Benevento?
From 3 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 1, Benevento have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Benevento 1-1 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Benevento?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Benevento tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 75%, Benevento 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Sudtirol and 25% for Benevento.
On the defensive side: Benevento in 50%; Benevento in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 0% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Sudtirol's recent games and 25% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Benevento tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Benevento in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.