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Prediction vindicated as Spezia edge out Pisa 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Spezia beat Pisa 3-2 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.16 xG and Pisa 0.92 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Spezia beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pisa outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 1.14 / defence 0.92 against Pisa attack 0.95 / defence 0.84, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Spezia 39% | Draw 33% | Pisa 27%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 41%, Pisa 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Spezia's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Pisa's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Spezia 1.44 PPG, Pisa 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spezia win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights