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Spezia and Padova share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 10, as Spezia and Padova drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.03 xG and Padova 1.12 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.84 / defence 1.23 against Padova attack 0.81 / defence 0.92, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Spezia 29% | Draw 38% | Padova 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 44%, Padova 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Spezia's trading profile (9 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Padova's trading profile (9 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Padova arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Spezia (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights