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Shock result as Cremonese defy the odds to beat Spezia 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cremonese beat Spezia 2-3 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Promotion Play-offs - Final, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.51 xG and Cremonese 1.39 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Cremonese outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 1.25 / defence 0.99 against Cremonese attack 1.22 / defence 0.96, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Spezia 39% | Draw 27% | Cremonese 33%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Cremonese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 43%, Cremonese 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Spezia's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Cremonese's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Spezia 1.48 PPG, Cremonese 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights