🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Cremonese defy the odds to beat Spezia 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cremonese beat Spezia 2-3 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.27 xG and Cremonese 1.09 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Cremonese outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 1.14 / defence 0.86 against Cremonese attack 1.14 / defence 0.86, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Spezia 39% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 30%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Cremonese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 42%, Cremonese 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Spezia's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Cremonese's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Spezia 1.45 PPG, Cremonese 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights