Spezia vs Cittadella – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Spezia's attack at 1.18x the league average against Cittadella's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cittadella's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.3%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
63%
1.60
25%
4.05
13%
7.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.75
0.80
Cittadella xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
7.84
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
14%
7.01
Win to Nil
28%
3.55
2%
54.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Cittadella?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Spezia and Cittadella expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Spezia and 0.80 for Cittadella, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Cittadella?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.