Sassuolo 0-0 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spezia at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sassuolo vs Spezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 7 as Sassuolo welcome Spezia to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 September 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Sassuolo have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sassuolo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sassuolo at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Spezia — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Spezia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Spezia away from home this season: 0W 9D 1L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Spezia's 2.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Sassuolo's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Sassuolo, 0 for Spezia and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2023, ended 1–0 with Sassuolo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sassuolo trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Spezia trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 61% versus Spezia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 52% | Spezia 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.13 xG and Spezia 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 0.958 / defence 1.439 | Spezia attack 0.962 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.132. Data: 6 Sassuolo games / 44 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 26% | Draw 27% | Spezia 46%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Spezia 2.17. Spezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Sassuolo dominate the H2H record, yet Spezia are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Spezia are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Sassuolo 60% | Spezia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 26% | Draw 27% | Spezia 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Sassuolo 1.13 / Spezia 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 0.958 / def 1.439 | Spezia attack 0.962 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Spezia (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Spezia xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Spezia kick off?
Sassuolo vs Spezia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Spezia?
Sassuolo 0 - 0 Spezia.
Where is Sassuolo vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Spezia part of?
Sassuolo vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 26% chance of winning, Spezia a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sassuolo and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Spezia?
Record (4 meetings): Sassuolo 2W | Draws 2 | Spezia 0W.
What form are Sassuolo and Spezia in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Spezia (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sassuolo's attack at 0.96x the league average against Spezia's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Spezia's attack versus Sassuolo's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
26%
3.80
27%
3.67
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.69
1.57
Spezia xG
3.80
26%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
21%
4.79
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
5%
18.20
15%
6.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.6 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.57 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Sassuolo have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 10W 11D 23L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sassuolo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Spezia's form line: 12W 20D 12L from 44 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Spezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sassuolo on 0.93 PPG, Spezia on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sassuolo have posted 1.10 PPG from 21 outings (6W 5D 10L).
On the road, Spezia have gone 3W 11D 7L from 21 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sassuolo are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 1.07 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Early Season
Spezia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Spezia in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 10W 11D 23L in their last 44 games (0.93 PPG), while Spezia have gone 12W 20D 12L in their last 44 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Spezia away?
Sassuolo's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.10 PPG; Spezia away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2022, when Sassuolo won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sassuolo's record when hosting Spezia specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sassuolo
3
Draws
1
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Spezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 2, Spezia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2025, when Spezia 2-1 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Spezia?
Sassuolo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Spezia see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 62%, Spezia 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Sassuolo) and 52% (Spezia).
On the defensive side: Spezia in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Spezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Sassuolo's games and 52% of Spezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sassuolo vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Sassuolo's recent games and 52% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sassuolo and Spezia tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Spezia in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sassuolo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo and Spezia finished level at 0-0 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.13 xG and Spezia 1.57 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sassuolo fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Spezia landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.96 / defence 1.44 against Spezia attack 0.96 / defence 0.94, drawn from 6/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 26% | Draw 27% | Spezia 46%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 52%, Spezia 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Spezia's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sassuolo 0.93 PPG, Spezia 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sassuolo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.