Sassuolo vs Sampdoria – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sassuolo's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Sampdoria's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.99. Flip it around — Sampdoria's attack (1.22x) against Sassuolo's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 15/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
53%
1.88
25%
4.00
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
3.23
1.24
Sampdoria xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
14%
7.31
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
3%
33.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.24 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.