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Prediction vindicated as Sassuolo edge out Cosenza 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sassuolo beat Cosenza 2-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.93 xG and Cosenza 1.06 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 1.53 / defence 0.94 against Cosenza attack 1.06 / defence 1.02, drawn from 19/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 56% | Draw 25% | Cosenza 19%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 54%, Cosenza 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sassuolo's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Cosenza's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sassuolo 1.28 PPG, Cosenza 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sassuolo win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights