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Sassuolo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Juve Stabia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sassuolo beat Juve Stabia 2-0 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 2.18 xG and Juve Stabia 1.09 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Juve Stabia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 1.66 / defence 1.11 against Juve Stabia attack 0.88 / defence 1.08, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 60% | Draw 24% | Juve Stabia 16%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 61%, Juve Stabia 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sassuolo's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Juve Stabia's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Sassuolo arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Sassuolo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights