Sassuolo 1-4 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sassuolo vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore plays host to Sassuolo versus Cremonese in Serie B, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 31 August 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sassuolo have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sassuolo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sassuolo have posted 3W 3D 4L at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cremonese (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cremonese away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Cremonese arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Sassuolo, 0 for Cremonese and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2023, ended 3–2 with Sassuolo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sassuolo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Cremonese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 63% versus Cremonese 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 54% | Cremonese 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.15 xG and Cremonese 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 0.957 / defence 1.148 | Cremonese attack 0.882 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.039. Data: 3 Sassuolo games / 41 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 37% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 31%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Cremonese 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sassuolo as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cremonese (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sassuolo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sassuolo 60% | Cremonese 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 37% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Sassuolo 1.15 / Cremonese 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 0.957 / def 1.148 | Cremonese attack 0.882 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Cremonese xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Cremonese kick off?
Sassuolo vs Cremonese kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Cremonese?
Sassuolo 1 - 4 Cremonese.
Where is Sassuolo vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Cremonese part of?
Sassuolo vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 37% chance of winning, Cremonese a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sassuolo and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Cremonese?
Record (2 meetings): Sassuolo 1W | Draws 1 | Cremonese 0W.
What form are Sassuolo and Cremonese in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Cremonese (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sassuolo's attack at 0.96x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (0.88x) against Sassuolo's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
37%
2.74
32%
3.11
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.21
1.05
Cremonese xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
13%
7.84
10%
10.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 11.6 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.05 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 41 outings, Sassuolo have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 8W 11D 22L record — L-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sassuolo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cremonese's form line: 20W 10D 11L from 41 games, 1.71 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Cremonese are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sassuolo.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sassuolo have posted 1.15 PPG from 20 outings (6W 5D 9L).
On the road, Cremonese have gone 9W 5D 6L from 20 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sassuolo are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.34 scored and 0.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Cremonese in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Early Season
Cremonese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 8W 11D 22L in their last 41 games (0.85 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 20W 10D 11L in their last 41 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.15 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Sassuolo or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sassuolo have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Cremonese in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cremonese won 1-4 on 31 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sassuolo have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cremonese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sassuolo
2
Draws
2
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Cremonese?
From 6 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 2, Cremonese have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Sassuolo 1-0 Cremonese.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 60%, Cremonese 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sassuolo) and 50% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Cremonese in 35%; Cremonese in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 45% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sassuolo vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sassuolo's recent games and 50% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sassuolo and Cremonese tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cremonese run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Sassuolo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Sassuolo 1-4 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.15 xG and Cremonese 1.05 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Cremonese outscored their 1.05 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Cremonese attack 0.88 / defence 0.92, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 37% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 31%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Cremonese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 54%, Cremonese 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Cremonese's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.85. Form held, and they took the win. Sassuolo (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.