Sampdoria 2-0 Virtus Entella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Virtus Entella at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sampdoria host Virtus Entella at Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 October 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Sampdoria have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Luigi Ferraris this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Sampdoria are significantly better at Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Virtus Entella stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Virtus Entella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Virtus Entella have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Virtus Entella — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sampdoria, 1 for Virtus Entella and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Sampdoria in-play tendencies (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Virtus Entella in-play tendencies (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 55% versus Virtus Entella 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 43% | Virtus Entella 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.10 xG and Virtus Entella 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.953 / defence 1.104 | Virtus Entella attack 1.006 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.319. Data: 47 Sampdoria games / 47 Virtus Entella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 28% | Draw 28% | Virtus Entella 45%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Virtus Entella 2.22. Virtus Entella hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Virtus Entella are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Virtus Entella offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sampdoria 40% | Virtus Entella 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 28% | Draw 28% | Virtus Entella 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Sampdoria 1.10 / Virtus Entella 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.953 / def 1.104 | Virtus Entella attack 1.006 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Virtus Entella (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Virtus Entella xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella kick off?
Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella?
Sampdoria 2 - 0 Virtus Entella.
Where is Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella being played?
The match is being played at Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella part of?
Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 28% chance of winning, Virtus Entella a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Virtus Entella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sampdoria and Virtus Entella will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Virtus Entella?
Record (2 meetings): Sampdoria 0W | Draws 1 | Virtus Entella 1W.
What form are Sampdoria and Virtus Entella in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Virtus Entella (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sampdoria's attack at 0.95x the league average against Virtus Entella's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Virtus Entella's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Virtus Entella Win
28%
3.63
28%
3.60
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.56
1.47
Virtus Entella xG
3.63
28%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
6%
15.72
15%
6.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 11.3 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Virtus Entella expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.47 for Virtus Entella, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Sampdoria have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 12W 13D 22L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Virtus Entella's form line: 12W 16D 19L from 47 games, 1.11 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-D. The sample for Virtus Entella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sampdoria on 1.04 PPG, Virtus Entella on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sampdoria have posted 1.59 PPG from 22 outings (10W 5D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Sampdoria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Virtus Entella have gone 3W 5D 14L from 22 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Virtus Entella's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sampdoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sampdoria are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Virtus Entella are on 1.00 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Virtus Entella
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Virtus Entella in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 12W 13D 22L in their last 47 games (1.04 PPG), while Virtus Entella have gone 12W 16D 19L in their last 47 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Virtus Entella away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.59 PPG; Virtus Entella away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sampdoria and Virtus Entella runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sampdoria's record when hosting Virtus Entella specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Sampdoria
1
Draws
1
Virtus Entella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Virtus Entella?
From 3 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 1, Virtus Entella have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Virtus Entella last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Sampdoria 2-0 Virtus Entella.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Virtus Entella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 50%, Virtus Entella 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Sampdoria) and 36% (Virtus Entella).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Sampdoria have failed to score in 27% of games; Virtus Entella in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Virtus Entella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Virtus Entella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 36% of Virtus Entella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Sampdoria's recent games and 36% of Virtus Entella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Virtus Entella tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Virtus Entella in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sampdoria cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Virtus Entella.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Virtus Entella 2-0 at Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.10 xG and Virtus Entella 1.47 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sampdoria beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Virtus Entella landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.95 / defence 1.10 against Virtus Entella attack 1.01 / defence 0.91, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 28% | Draw 28% | Virtus Entella 45%, with Virtus Entella to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Sampdoria win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 43%, Virtus Entella 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Virtus Entella's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.04 PPG, Virtus Entella 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sampdoria win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.