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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sampdoria and Virtus Entella share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sampdoria and Virtus Entella finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.70 xG and Virtus Entella 0.73 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.98 / defence 1.01 against Virtus Entella attack 0.71 / defence 1.31, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 60% | Draw 25% | Virtus Entella 15%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 42%, Virtus Entella 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sampdoria's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Virtus Entella's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sampdoria 0.89 PPG, Virtus Entella 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Virtus Entella (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights