Sampdoria 4-1 Ternana – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Ternana at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Ternana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris plays host to Sampdoria versus Ternana in Serie B, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Monday 1 April 2024 at 19:30 UTC.

Form

Sampdoria (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Sampdoria's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Ternana have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Ternana's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Sampdoria against 1.40 for Ternana. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sampdoria register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Ternana in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sampdoria lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 2–1 with Sampdoria winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Sampdoria half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Ternana half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 54% versus Ternana 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 48% | Ternana 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.34 xG and Ternana 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.944 / defence 1.243 | Ternana attack 1.029 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.259 / away 1.236. Data: 30 Sampdoria games / 68 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sampdoria 32% | Draw 26% | Ternana 42%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Ternana 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Ternana as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ternana if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 70% | Ternana 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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