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Prediction vindicated as Sampdoria edge out Spezia 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sampdoria beat Spezia 1-0 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.27 xG and Spezia 1.01 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Spezia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.96 / defence 1.03 against Spezia attack 0.95 / defence 1.03, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 42% | Draw 30% | Spezia 29%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 38%, Spezia 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sampdoria's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Spezia's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Spezia arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Sampdoria winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sampdoria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights