Sampdoria vs Spezia – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stalemate at Sampdoria's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sampdoria and Spezia finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 0.96 xG and Spezia 1.19 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sampdoria fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Spezia landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.93 / defence 1.10 against Spezia attack 0.98 / defence 0.81, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 28% | Draw 33% | Spezia 39%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 52%, Spezia 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sampdoria's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Spezia's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.31 PPG, Spezia 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights