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Sampdoria cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Salernitana.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sampdoria beat Salernitana 2-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Relegation Play-offs - Final, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 0.95 xG and Salernitana 0.56 xG, a combined 1.52. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sampdoria beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.72 / defence 0.81 against Salernitana attack 0.61 / defence 1.04, drawn from 76/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 42% | Draw 38% | Salernitana 20%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 46% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 45%, Salernitana 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sampdoria's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Salernitana's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Sampdoria arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sampdoria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights