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Prediction vindicated as Pisa edge out Sampdoria 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pisa beat Sampdoria 0-1 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.14 xG and Pisa 1.16 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sampdoria fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.86 / defence 1.04 against Pisa attack 1.08 / defence 1.07, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 33% | Draw 33% | Pisa 34%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 49%, Pisa 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sampdoria's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Pisa's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.30 PPG, Pisa 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Pisa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights