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Dominant Sampdoria run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Pescara.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sampdoria beat Pescara 4-1 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.15 xG and Pescara 0.88 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Sampdoria beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.71 / defence 0.96 against Pescara attack 0.82 / defence 1.24, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 38% | Draw 38% | Pescara 24%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 33%, Pescara 83%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sampdoria's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Pescara's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Pescara arrived the stronger side — 0.83 PPG against 0.33. Form was overturned, with Sampdoria winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sampdoria scored 4 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm. Pescara shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights