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Shock result as Sampdoria defy the odds to beat Cosenza 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sampdoria beat Cosenza 1-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.11 xG and Cosenza 1.15 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cosenza landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.80 / defence 1.04 against Cosenza attack 0.98 / defence 1.15, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 32% | Draw 34% | Cosenza 34%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Sampdoria win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 49%, Cosenza 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sampdoria's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Cosenza's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.25 PPG, Cosenza 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sampdoria win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Cosenza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights