Sampdoria vs Modena – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Modena at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sampdoria vs Modena encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sampdoria host Modena at Stadio Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 8 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sampdoria — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria's home record at Stadio Luigi Ferraris: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sampdoria are significantly better at Stadio Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Modena have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Modena's 2.00 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Sampdoria's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
Sampdoria hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 1 for Modena, with 1 draws in between.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Sampdoria winning.
The historical record gives Sampdoria a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sampdoria trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Modena trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 54% versus Modena 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 42% | Modena 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.30 xG and Modena 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 1.022 / defence 0.979 | Modena attack 1.123 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.232. Data: 48 Sampdoria games / 48 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 34% | Draw 30% | Modena 36%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Modena 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Sampdoria dominate the H2H record, yet Modena are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 40% | Modena 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 34% | Draw 30% | Modena 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Sampdoria 1.30 / Modena 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 1.022 / def 0.979 | Modena attack 1.123 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Modena (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Modena xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Modena kick off?
Sampdoria vs Modena is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Tuesday 8 December 2026 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Where is Sampdoria vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Modena part of?
Sampdoria vs Modena is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 34% chance of winning, Modena a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sampdoria and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Modena?
Record (6 meetings): Sampdoria 4W | Draws 1 | Modena 1W.
What form are Sampdoria and Modena in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Modena (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sampdoria's attack at 1.02x the league average against Modena's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
34%
2.94
30%
3.36
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.66
1.35
Modena xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
9%
11.42
10%
10.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.4 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.35 for Modena, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sampdoria come into this having played 48 games, going 13W 13D 22L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Modena sit at 1.50 PPG from 48 outings (20W 12D 16L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Modena carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sampdoria's home form reads 11W 5D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Sampdoria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Modena have taken 1.35 points per game from 23 outings (8W 7D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Sampdoria are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.35 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Modena in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 13W 13D 22L in their last 48 games (1.08 PPG), while Modena have gone 20W 12D 16L in their last 48 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Modena away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.65 PPG; Modena away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Sampdoria or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sampdoria have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Modena in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sampdoria and Modena runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sampdoria's record when hosting Modena specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Sampdoria
1
Draws
1
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Modena?
From 6 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 4, Modena have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Modena 1-2 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Modena?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 48%, Modena 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Sampdoria) and 44% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Sampdoria have failed to score in 26% of games; Modena in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 52% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Sampdoria's recent games and 44% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Modena tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Modena in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.