Sampdoria vs Mantova – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Mantova (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sampdoria face Mantova.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Mantova travel to Stadio Luigi Ferraris to take on Sampdoria. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 January 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sampdoria stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sampdoria have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sampdoria at Stadio Luigi Ferraris this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Luigi Ferraris. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sampdoria are significantly better at Stadio Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Mantova have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Mantova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Mantova have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Mantova's 2.20 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Sampdoria's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sampdoria, 3 for Mantova and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2026, ended 0–2 with Mantova winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sampdoria trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Mantova trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 52% versus Mantova 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 40% | Mantova 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.29 xG and Mantova 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.941 / defence 1.085 | Mantova attack 1.047 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.161. Data: 42 Sampdoria games / 42 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 36% | Draw 26% | Mantova 38%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Mantova 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mantova are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mantova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sampdoria 30% | Mantova 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 36% | Draw 26% | Mantova 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Sampdoria 1.29 / Mantova 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.941 / def 1.085 | Mantova attack 1.047 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Mantova (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Mantova xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Mantova kick off?
Sampdoria vs Mantova is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 January 2027 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Where is Sampdoria vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Mantova part of?
Sampdoria vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 36% chance of winning, Mantova a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sampdoria and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Mantova?
Record (5 meetings): Sampdoria 1W | Draws 1 | Mantova 3W.
What form are Sampdoria and Mantova in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Mantova (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sampdoria's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Mantova's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Mantova's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
36%
2.77
26%
3.80
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.61
1.32
Mantova xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
10%
10.38
10%
9.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.7 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.5 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.32 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Sampdoria have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 11W 12D 19L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sampdoria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Mantova's form line: 16W 8D 18L from 42 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Mantova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sampdoria on 1.07 PPG, Mantova on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sampdoria have posted 1.60 PPG from 20 outings (9W 5D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — Sampdoria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Mantova have gone 5W 5D 10L from 20 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sampdoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sampdoria are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.26 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Early Season
Mantova
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Mantova in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 11W 12D 19L in their last 42 games (1.07 PPG), while Mantova have gone 16W 8D 18L in their last 42 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Mantova away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.60 PPG; Mantova away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Mantova have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Sampdoria's record when hosting Mantova specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Sampdoria
1
Draws
3
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Mantova?
From 5 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 1, Mantova have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Mantova last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Mantova 2-0 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Mantova?
Mantova have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 45%, Mantova 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Sampdoria) and 55% (Mantova).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Sampdoria have failed to score in 30% of games; Mantova in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Mantova?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 45% of Mantova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Sampdoria's recent games and 55% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Mantova tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Mantova in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.