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Shock result as Mantova defy the odds to beat Sampdoria 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mantova beat Sampdoria 0-1 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.23 xG and Mantova 0.74 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sampdoria fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.94 / defence 0.97 against Mantova attack 0.70 / defence 0.95, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 44% | Draw 37% | Mantova 19%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Mantova win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 38%, Mantova 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sampdoria's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Mantova's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.04 PPG, Mantova 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mantova win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Mantova (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights