Sampdoria 1-2 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Juve Stabia travel to Luigi Ferraris to take on Sampdoria. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sampdoria stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Sampdoria have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sampdoria at Luigi Ferraris this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Luigi Ferraris. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Juve Stabia — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Juve Stabia's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Sampdoria carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sampdoria, 1 for Juve Stabia and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Sampdoria in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Juve Stabia in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 51% versus Juve Stabia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 38% | Juve Stabia 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.21 xG and Juve Stabia 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.965 / defence 0.972 | Juve Stabia attack 0.855 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.148. Data: 39 Sampdoria games / 39 Juve Stabia games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 42% | Draw 29% | Juve Stabia 29%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Juve Stabia 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sampdoria are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sampdoria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 30% | Juve Stabia 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 42% | Draw 29% | Juve Stabia 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Sampdoria 1.21 / Juve Stabia 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.965 / def 0.972 | Juve Stabia attack 0.855 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Juve Stabia xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia?
Sampdoria 1 - 2 Juve Stabia.
Where is Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia part of?
Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 42% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sampdoria and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Juve Stabia?
Record (4 meetings): Sampdoria 1W | Draws 2 | Juve Stabia 1W.
What form are Sampdoria and Juve Stabia in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Juve Stabia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sampdoria's attack rating (0.96) and Juve Stabia's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Juve Stabia's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
42%
2.39
29%
3.43
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.16
0.95
Juve Stabia xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
9%
11.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.0 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.3 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Sampdoria and 0.95 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sampdoria come into this having played 39 games, going 11W 12D 16L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Sampdoria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Juve Stabia sit at 1.33 PPG from 39 outings (12W 16D 11L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Juve Stabia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sampdoria on 1.15 PPG, Juve Stabia on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sampdoria's home form reads 9W 5D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Sampdoria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Juve Stabia have taken 0.84 points per game from 19 outings (3W 7D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juve Stabia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sampdoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sampdoria are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.21 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Early Season
Juve Stabia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 11W 12D 16L in their last 39 games (1.15 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 12W 16D 11L in their last 39 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Juve Stabia away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.68 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sampdoria and Juve Stabia runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sampdoria's record when hosting Juve Stabia specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Sampdoria
2
Draws
2
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Juve Stabia?
From 5 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 1, Juve Stabia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Sampdoria 1-2 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Juve Stabia?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sampdoria see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 42%, Juve Stabia 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Sampdoria) and 47% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Sampdoria have failed to score in 32% of games; Juve Stabia in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Juve Stabia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 53% of Juve Stabia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Sampdoria's recent games and 47% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Juve Stabia defy the odds to beat Sampdoria 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia beat Sampdoria 1-2 at Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.21 xG and Juve Stabia 0.95 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Juve Stabia outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.96 / defence 0.97 against Juve Stabia attack 0.85 / defence 0.96, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 42% | Draw 29% | Juve Stabia 29%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Juve Stabia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 38%, Juve Stabia 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.15 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juve Stabia win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.