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Dominant Frosinone run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sampdoria.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Frosinone beat Sampdoria 0-3 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 0.98 xG and Frosinone 0.72 xG, a combined 1.70. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sampdoria fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Frosinone outscored their 0.72 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.76 / defence 0.83 against Frosinone attack 0.79 / defence 1.05, drawn from 68/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 39% | Draw 37% | Frosinone 24%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a Frosinone win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 47%, Frosinone 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sampdoria's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Frosinone's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.26 PPG, Frosinone 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights