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Prediction vindicated as Sampdoria edge out Empoli 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sampdoria beat Empoli 1-0 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.52 xG and Empoli 1.07 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Empoli landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.88 / defence 0.99 against Empoli attack 0.98 / defence 1.24, drawn from 70/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 46% | Draw 29% | Empoli 25%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 39%, Empoli 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sampdoria's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Empoli's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.10 PPG, Empoli 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sampdoria win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights