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Stalemate at Sampdoria's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sampdoria and Cremonese finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 0.85 xG and Cremonese 1.27 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sampdoria fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Cremonese landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.71 / defence 0.89 against Cremonese attack 1.21 / defence 0.93, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 23% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 44%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 47%, Cremonese 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sampdoria's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Cremonese's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights