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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sampdoria and Catanzaro share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sampdoria and Catanzaro finished level at 3-3 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 0.79 xG and Catanzaro 0.80 xG, a combined 1.59. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Sampdoria beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Catanzaro outscored their 0.80 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.78 / defence 0.93 against Catanzaro attack 0.82 / defence 0.87, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 29% | Draw 41% | Catanzaro 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 51%, Catanzaro 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sampdoria's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Catanzaro's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.38 PPG, Catanzaro 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sampdoria (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Catanzaro (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights