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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Sampdoria edge out Avellino 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sampdoria beat Avellino 2-1 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.39 xG and Avellino 0.85 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.84 / defence 0.96 against Avellino attack 0.79 / defence 1.21, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 48% | Draw 30% | Avellino 22%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 39%, Avellino 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sampdoria's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Avellino's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.00 PPG, Avellino 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sampdoria win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights