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Shock result as Juve Stabia defy the odds to beat Salernitana 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juve Stabia beat Salernitana 1-2 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.38 xG and Juve Stabia 1.29 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 1.01 / defence 1.30 against Juve Stabia attack 0.92 / defence 1.11, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salernitana 37% | Draw 31% | Juve Stabia 32%, with Salernitana to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Juve Stabia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 44%, Juve Stabia 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salernitana's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Juve Stabia's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Salernitana 1.06 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juve Stabia win broke the near-deadlock. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights