🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Salernitana defy the odds to beat Cremonese 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salernitana beat Cremonese 1-0 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 0.89 xG and Cremonese 1.66 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cremonese landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 0.94 / defence 1.22 against Cremonese attack 1.22 / defence 0.77, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salernitana 18% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 53%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Salernitana win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 57%, Cremonese 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salernitana's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Cremonese's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.62. Form was overturned, with Salernitana winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Salernitana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights