Salernitana 4-1 Carrarese – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Salernitana take on Carrarese.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 15 as Salernitana welcome Carrarese to Stadio Arechi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 December 2024 at 16:15 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie B games this season, Salernitana have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadio Arechi, Salernitana have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Carrarese — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Carrarese's away record: 1W 1D 5L from 7 road trips in Serie B this season (0.57 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.57 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Carrarese — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

In-Play Data

Salernitana trading profile (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

Carrarese trading profile (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 50% versus Carrarese 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Salernitana 43% | Carrarese 29%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.13 xG and Carrarese 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 0.792 / defence 1.276 | Carrarese attack 0.701 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.205 / away 1.105. Salernitana's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Salernitana games / 14 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Salernitana 36% | Draw 36% | Carrarese 29%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 2.78 | Draw 2.78 | Carrarese 3.45. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.12 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Salernitana 60% | Carrarese 43%.

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