🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Venezia cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Reggiana.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Venezia beat Reggiana 1-3 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.23 xG and Venezia 1.08 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Venezia outscored their 1.08 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.95 / defence 1.03 against Venezia attack 1.01 / defence 0.99, drawn from 56/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reggiana 38% | Draw 32% | Venezia 30%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Venezia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 52%, Venezia 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reggiana's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Venezia's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.14 PPG, Venezia 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights