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Reggiana and Sampdoria share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 30, as Reggiana and Sampdoria drew 2-2 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.33 xG and Sampdoria 1.26 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.87 / defence 1.08 against Sampdoria attack 1.08 / defence 1.26, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reggiana 36% | Draw 30% | Sampdoria 33%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 36%, Sampdoria 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reggiana's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Sampdoria's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.16 PPG, Sampdoria 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Reggiana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights