Reggiana 0-2 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pisa at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reggiana vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 33 as Reggiana welcome Pisa to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 April 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Reggiana have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Reggiana's home record at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Pisa — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Reggiana have won 0, Pisa 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 1–2 with Pisa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Reggiana in-play tendencies (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Pisa in-play tendencies (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 50% versus Pisa 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 39% | Pisa 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.00 xG and Pisa 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.895 / defence 1.128 | Pisa attack 1.097 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.163. Data: 70 Reggiana games / 70 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggiana 24% | Draw 30% | Pisa 46%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Pisa 2.17. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Reggiana 60% | Pisa 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 24% | Draw 30% | Pisa 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Reggiana 1.00 / Pisa 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.895 / def 1.128 | Pisa attack 1.097 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Pisa (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Pisa xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggiana vs Pisa kick off?
Reggiana vs Pisa kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 April 2025 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Pisa?
Reggiana 0 - 2 Pisa.
Where is Reggiana vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Pisa part of?
Reggiana vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 24% chance of winning, Pisa a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Reggiana and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Reggiana vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Pisa?
Record (3 meetings): Reggiana 0W | Draws 2 | Pisa 1W.
What form are Reggiana and Pisa in?
Reggiana (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Pisa (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Reggiana's attack at 0.90x the league average against Pisa's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Reggiana's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
24%
4.08
30%
3.35
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.44
1.44
Pisa xG
4.08
24%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
6%
17.22
17%
5.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.44 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Reggiana's recent record stands at 17W 28D 25L from 70 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 29W 20D 21L across 70 games — 1.53 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pisa by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Reggiana heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Reggiana have managed 7W 17D 11L from 35 games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 12W 9D 14L across 35 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Reggiana are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.47 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa in 64%.
Last 70 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Current Season
Pisa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggiana and Pisa in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 17W 28D 25L in their last 70 games (1.13 PPG), while Pisa have gone 29W 20D 21L in their last 70 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Pisa away?
Pisa's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.09 PPG; Pisa away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Reggiana and Pisa runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Pisa have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Reggiana's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Reggiana
2
Draws
2
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Pisa?
From 4 meetings on record, Reggiana have won 0, Pisa have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when Reggiana 0-2 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 54%, Pisa 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Reggiana) and 46% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Reggiana have failed to score in 31% of games; Pisa in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggiana play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Reggiana's games and 57% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reggiana vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Reggiana's recent games and 46% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Pisa tend to score early?
Reggiana have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Pisa in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Reggiana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Reggiana 0-2 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.00 xG and Pisa 1.44 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Reggiana fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.90 / defence 1.13 against Pisa attack 1.10 / defence 0.88, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 24% | Draw 30% | Pisa 46%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 39%, Pisa 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pisa's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.