Reggiana 0-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Reggiana take on Cosenza.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Cosenza travel to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore to take on Reggiana. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 29 October 2024, 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Reggiana — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Reggiana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Reggiana have posted 3W 4D 3L at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie B games this season, Cosenza have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Reggiana at 1.20 PPG versus Cosenza's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Reggiana, 2 for Cosenza and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2024, ended 0–4 with Cosenza winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Reggiana in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Cosenza in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 46% versus Cosenza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Reggiana 35% | Cosenza 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.12 xG and Cosenza 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.922 / defence 1.014 | Cosenza attack 0.947 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.122. Data: 48 Reggiana games / 48 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggiana 34% | Draw 34% | Cosenza 32%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | Cosenza 3.12. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Reggiana 30% | Cosenza 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Tuesday 29 Oct 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 34% | Draw 34% | Cosenza 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Reggiana 1.12 / Cosenza 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.922 / def 1.014 | Cosenza attack 0.947 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Cosenza xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggiana vs Cosenza kick off?
Reggiana vs Cosenza kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 29 October 2024 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Cosenza?
Reggiana 0 - 1 Cosenza.
Where is Reggiana vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Cosenza part of?
Reggiana vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 34% chance of winning, Cosenza a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Reggiana and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Reggiana vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Cosenza?
Record (2 meetings): Reggiana 0W | Draws 0 | Cosenza 2W.
What form are Reggiana and Cosenza in?
Reggiana (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Cosenza (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Reggiana vs Cosenza?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Reggiana's attack at 0.92x the league average against Cosenza's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Reggiana's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.94
34%
2.94
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.19
1.08
Cosenza xG
2.94
34%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
12%
8.64
10%
9.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.0 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.08 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Reggiana's recent record stands at 13W 20D 15L from 48 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Reggiana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 13W 19D 16L across 48 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-D-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reggiana on 1.23 PPG, Cosenza on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Reggiana have managed 5W 13D 5L from 23 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cosenza's away record stands at 6W 10D 7L across 23 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Reggiana are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 1.15 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggiana and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 13W 20D 15L in their last 48 games (1.23 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 13W 19D 16L in their last 48 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Cosenza away?
Reggiana's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.22 PPG; Cosenza away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Reggiana or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggiana have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Cosenza in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Reggiana and Cosenza runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cosenza have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Apr 2024, when Cosenza won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Reggiana's record when hosting Cosenza specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Reggiana
0
Draws
4
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Cosenza?
From 4 meetings on record, Reggiana have won 0, Cosenza have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2025, when Cosenza 1-0 Reggiana.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Cosenza?
Cosenza have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reggiana see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 52%, Cosenza 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 26% for Reggiana and 22% for Cosenza.
On the defensive side: Reggiana keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Cosenza in 30%; Reggiana have failed to score in 26% of games; Cosenza in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggiana play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Reggiana's recent matches and 44% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggiana vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Reggiana's recent games and 22% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Cosenza tend to score early?
Reggiana have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cosenza defy the odds to beat Reggiana 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Reggiana 0-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.12 xG and Cosenza 1.08 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Reggiana fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.92 / defence 1.01 against Cosenza attack 0.95 / defence 0.94, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 34% | Draw 34% | Cosenza 32%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Cosenza win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 35%, Cosenza 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cosenza's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.23 PPG, Cosenza 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cosenza win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.