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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Reggiana defy the odds to beat Modena 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Reggiana beat Modena 1-0 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.24 xG and Modena 1.31 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Modena landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 1.22 / defence 1.07 against Modena attack 1.08 / defence 0.77, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reggiana 31% | Draw 34% | Modena 34%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Reggiana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 53%, Modena 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reggiana's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Modena's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.19 PPG, Modena 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggiana win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights