🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Reggiana edge out Mantova 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Reggiana beat Mantova 1-0 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.22 xG and Mantova 1.19 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mantova landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.87 / defence 1.20 against Mantova attack 0.94 / defence 1.07, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reggiana 36% | Draw 29% | Mantova 35%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 51%, Mantova 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reggiana's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Mantova's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.07 PPG, Mantova 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggiana win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Mantova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights