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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Reggiana defy the odds to beat Juve Stabia 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Reggiana beat Juve Stabia 2-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.05 xG and Juve Stabia 1.19 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Reggiana beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.79 / defence 1.13 against Juve Stabia attack 1.00 / defence 1.07, drawn from 56/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reggiana 30% | Draw 32% | Juve Stabia 37%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Reggiana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 33%, Juve Stabia 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reggiana's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Juve Stabia's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Juve Stabia arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Reggiana winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Reggiana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights