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Prediction vindicated as Frosinone edge out Reggiana 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Frosinone beat Reggiana 0-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.21 xG and Frosinone 1.29 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Reggiana fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 1.02 / defence 0.93 against Frosinone attack 1.30 / defence 0.89, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reggiana 32% | Draw 32% | Frosinone 36%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 51%, Frosinone 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reggiana's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Frosinone's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.20 PPG, Frosinone 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward. Frosinone (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights