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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Reggiana cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Empoli.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Reggiana beat Empoli 3-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.50 xG and Empoli 1.00 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Reggiana beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 1.02 / defence 1.04 against Empoli attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Reggiana 47% | Draw 29% | Empoli 23%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 49%, Empoli 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reggiana's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Empoli's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.13 PPG, Empoli 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggiana win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm. Empoli (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights