Reggiana 1-2 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Cremonese at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reggiana vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore plays host to Reggiana versus Cremonese in Serie B, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Friday 4 April 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Reggiana have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Reggiana have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Cremonese (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Cremonese's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Cremonese are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Reggiana 1W, Cremonese 0W, 2D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2024, ended 2–0 with Reggiana winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Reggiana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Cremonese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 49% versus Cremonese 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 38% | Cremonese 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.09 xG and Cremonese 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.908 / defence 1.104 | Cremonese attack 1.237 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.137. Cremonese have an above-average attack strength of 1.237 — the away xG of 1.55 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 69 Reggiana games / 69 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggiana 25% | Draw 28% | Cremonese 46%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Cremonese 2.17. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Reggiana 50% | Cremonese 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Friday 4 Apr 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 25% | Draw 28% | Cremonese 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Reggiana 1.09 / Cremonese 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.908 / def 1.104 | Cremonese attack 1.237 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Cremonese xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggiana vs Cremonese kick off?
Reggiana vs Cremonese kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 4 April 2025 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Cremonese?
Reggiana 1 - 2 Cremonese.
Where is Reggiana vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Cremonese part of?
Reggiana vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 25% chance of winning, Cremonese a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Reggiana and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Reggiana vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Cremonese?
Record (3 meetings): Reggiana 1W | Draws 2 | Cremonese 0W.
What form are Reggiana and Cremonese in?
Reggiana (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Cremonese (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Reggiana's attack at 0.91x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (1.24x) against Reggiana's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
25%
3.95
28%
3.54
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.64
1.55
Cremonese xG
3.95
25%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
5%
18.67
16%
6.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.0 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.55 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reggiana come into this having played 69 games, going 17W 28D 24L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, Cremonese sit at 1.68 PPG from 69 outings (32W 20D 17L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-D across their last five.
Cremonese carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Reggiana — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Reggiana's home form reads 7W 17D 10L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Cremonese have taken 1.68 points per game from 34 outings (16W 9D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Reggiana are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.51 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Current Season
Cremonese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggiana and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 17W 28D 24L in their last 69 games (1.14 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 32W 20D 17L in their last 69 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.12 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Reggiana or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggiana have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Cremonese in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reggiana have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cremonese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Reggiana
2
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Reggiana have won 1, Cremonese have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2025, when Reggiana 1-2 Cremonese.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Cremonese see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 53%, Cremonese 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Reggiana) and 56% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Cremonese in 32%; Reggiana have failed to score in 32% of games; Cremonese in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggiana play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Reggiana's recent matches and 50% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggiana vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Reggiana's recent games and 56% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Cremonese tend to score early?
Reggiana have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cremonese edge out Reggiana 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Reggiana 1-2 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.09 xG and Cremonese 1.55 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.91 / defence 1.10 against Cremonese attack 1.24 / defence 0.96, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 25% | Draw 28% | Cremonese 46%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 38%, Cremonese 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Cremonese's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.