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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Reggiana cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bari.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Reggiana beat Bari 3-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.87 xG and Bari 1.12 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Reggiana beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 1.11 / defence 1.13 against Bari attack 0.89 / defence 1.24, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reggiana 52% | Draw 29% | Bari 19%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 51%, Bari 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reggiana's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Bari's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.18 PPG, Bari 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggiana win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm. Bari (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights