🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Pisa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sassuolo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pisa beat Sassuolo 3-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.53 xG and Sassuolo 1.17 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Pisa beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.33 / defence 0.87 against Sassuolo attack 1.27 / defence 0.93, drawn from 56/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pisa 44% | Draw 29% | Sassuolo 27%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 55%, Sassuolo 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pisa's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Sassuolo's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pisa 1.45 PPG, Sassuolo 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. Sassuolo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights